Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 68.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.9
- Upside to median
- -5.1%
- Last close
- $86.55
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-26
67/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
EPS growth near 6% after an energy-cost haircut to consensus, a 3% dividend yield and partial multiple convergence of about 1.5% a year, in US-dollar terms.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Earnings growth plus dividends with gradual multiple convergence, cross-checked against long-horizon developed ex-US assumptions of 5.3%–7.3%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 94.9 | $86.55 | +6.0% |
| EWG Germany Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.24 | — |
| EWL Switzerland Index | —Unavailable | — | $62.92 | — |
| EWQ France Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.51 | — |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.61 | — |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | —Unavailable | — | $64.93 | — |