Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 49.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.4
- Upside to median
- +0.4%
- Last close
- $56.50
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Normalized EPS growth near 8%, a 2.5% dividend yield and no net valuation convergence, less a margin for cyclical earnings risk, with dispersion scaled to emerging-market volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Normalized earnings growth plus dividends over three years, cross-checked against long-horizon institutional emerging-market assumptions of about 4–7%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.1Fair | 100.4 | $56.50 | +7.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $91.23 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $105.61 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $152.72 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $34.15 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.49 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.59 | — |