US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 75.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.1
- Upside to median
- -6.9%
- Last close
- $765.37
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -15.5%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward EPS growth haircut to about 9% from the 16% CY2027 consensus, a 1.2% dividend yield and forward P/E compression from 18.7x toward 17.9x as rates stay high; dispersion reflects equity volatility with a negative skew.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Normalized earnings growth plus shareholder yield with partial margin and multiple normalization, cross-checked against long-horizon institutional assumptions of 4.8%–7.5%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The edge is thin relative to equity risk.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.5Expensive | 93.1 | $765.37 | +5.5% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $522.97 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $276.99 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $712.20 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $217.29 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $541.62 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $56.02 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $166.96 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $179.28 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $114.26 | — |