Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 77.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.4
- Upside to median
- -7.6%
- Last close
- $93.17
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-26
69/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 3.7% distribution yield plus FFO growth near 5%, less partial valuation convergence of about 2.5% as cap rates adjust to higher Treasury yields.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.5%
Income plus cash-flow growth with gradual cap-rate normalization over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +0.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers nearly the same modeled return with far lower uncertainty.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -1.6Expensive | 92.4 | $93.17 | +5.0% |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $26.27 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.46 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $91.90 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $27.63 | — |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $42.80 | — |