Metals
Today’s price sits at the 76.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.1
- Upside to median
- -10.9%
- Last close
- $367.82
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry; scenario-weighted price change combining sustained official demand with partial pressure from 2.66% real yields, less the fund expense ratio.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -9.0%
Long-run real-price drift plus inflation, with partial convergence toward the fair-value median; low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -2.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed outcome. The Treasury offers a higher modeled median with far lower uncertainty.