Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 53.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.5
- Upside to median
- -2.5%
- Last close
- $45.22
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +75.0%
- P75
- +35.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -25.0%
- P10
- -50.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario-weighted price outcomes across the on-chain valuation anchors, with no yield component and very wide dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
Adoption and dilution scenarios annualized over three years; low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a higher modeled median with far lower uncertainty.