Valuation Lens — October 25, 2026
Core bonds and emerging-market equities sit modestly below modeled fair value, while U.S. large caps, Australia, gold and crude oil trade well above it as a 5.00% 10-year Treasury raises the bar for every risk asset.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.44% (investment basis) is the annual hurdle, with the 10-year nominal yield at 5.00% and the 10-year real yield at 2.66%, both near the top of their 10-year ranges.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.0%
- 10y real
- 2.7%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.8Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.099.0–103.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.4%-0.5% to 10.5%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- +0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 103.094.1–112.9
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-15.0% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.1%
- +0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.092.2–109.8
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-20.0% to 30.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.1%
- Real EstateVNQ-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.592.8–106.2
- Upside to median
- -0.5%
- 1y modeled
- +5.8%-12.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.4%
- CryptoBTC-USD-0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 97.977.8–120.5
- Upside to median
- -2.1%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-45.0% to 65.0%
- vs Treasury
- -1.4%
- -0.9Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.089.3–102.7
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-13.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.1%
- -1.0Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.089.9–102.1
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-12.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.6%
- MetalsGLD-1.6Expensive
- Median fair value
- 85.974.7–98.6
- Upside to median
- -14.1%
- 1y modeled
- +1.0%-20.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- -3.4%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.8Expensive
- Median fair value
- 89.880.8–97.9
- Upside to median
- -10.2%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-14.0% to 20.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.6%
- -1.9Expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.084.3–97.7
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.5%-12.0% to 19.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.1%
- EnergyUSO-1.9Expensive
- Median fair value
- 82.971.7–95.6
- Upside to median
- -17.1%
- 1y modeled
- -3.0%-38.0% to 28.0%
- vs Treasury
- -7.4%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 36.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 41.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 46.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 52.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 65.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 67.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 77.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 80.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 81.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 81.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources59
- 1
- 2
- 3P/Es & Yields on Major IndexesThe Wall Street Journal / Birinyi Associates
- 4Guide to the Markets U.S., 4Q 2026J.P. Morgan Asset Management
- 5Shiller PE Ratiomultpl
- 6
- 7MSCI Japan IndexMSCI
- 8
- 9MSCI China IndexMSCI
- 10
- 11
- 12P/E Ratios by CountrySiblis Research
- 13Corporate Earnings Growth by CountrySiblis Research
- 14Europe P/E Ratio & ValuationsSiblis Research
- 15Emerging Markets P/E & ValuationsSiblis Research
- 16Europe P/E RatioWorld PE Ratio
- 17China P/E RatioWorld PE Ratio
- 18Australia P/E RatioWorld PE Ratio
- 19
- 20iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD)BlackRock iShares
- 21iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG)BlackRock iShares
- 22iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)BlackRock iShares
- 23iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)BlackRock iShares
- 24iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY)BlackRock iShares
- 25iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)BlackRock iShares
- 26ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
- 27ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
- 28
- 29VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate ETFVanguard
- 30
- 31
- 32
- 332026 REIT Trading TrendsCommercial Property Executive
- 34SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)World Gold Trust Services
- 35Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026World Gold Council
- 36Gold ETF Holdings and Flows, September 2026World Gold Council
- 37Silver market deficit expected to widen again this yearEngineering News
- 38LME Copper cash settlement tableWestmetall
- 39Brent Crude Settles at US$116.72The Rio Times
- 40Brent Crude FuturesOilprice.com
- 41Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 42Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum ProductsU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 43United States Oil Fund (USO)USCF Investments
- 44Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)State Street Global Advisors
- 45
- 46Natural Gas FuturesOilprice.com
- 47iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT)BlackRock iShares
- 48Bitcoin MVRV RatioNewhedge
- 49Bitcoin Realized PriceNewhedge
- 50
- 51Bitcoin Historical DataCoinMarketCap
- 52Ethereum Historical DataCoinMarketCap
- 53
- 54
- 55Gold Slips 0.30% to US$4,012 as Yields RiseThe Rio Times
- 56
- 57MSCI Korea IndexMSCI
- 58MSCI India IndexMSCI
- 59
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- valuation-lens-2026-10-25-261025001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.