Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.5
- Upside to median
- -0.5%
- Last close
- $92.69
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-23
63/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +5.8%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -12.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield plus FFO growth less a small multiple drag from high Treasury yields, with rate-sensitivity dispersion; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Building-block model: income, mid-single-digit FFO growth and a roughly stable FFO multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $26.14 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.52 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $91.55 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $27.47 | — |
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.1Fair | 99.5 | $92.69 | +5.8% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $42.57 | — |