US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 80.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.8
- Upside to median
- -10.2%
- Last close
- $759.97
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield plus haircut consensus EPS growth less partial multiple compression toward the modeled fair-value median; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +3.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Building-block model: income, normalized EPS growth after record margins, and partial valuation convergence over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +0.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a nearly equal return with far lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $521.37 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $275.75 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $704.40 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $216.54 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $527.20 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.8Expensive | 89.8 | $759.97 | +5.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.90 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $164.62 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $179.28 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $113.10 | — |