Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 52.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.9
- Upside to median
- -2.1%
- Last close
- $45.96
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +65.0%
- P75
- +30.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario-weighted adoption, liquidity and real-rate regimes around a near-fair starting valuation, with very wide dispersion; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Scenario-weighted adoption and dilution path from a near-fair starting point; low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- -1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.