Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 65.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $94.10
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -13.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield plus buybacks plus haircut EPS growth less partial convergence to the modeled fair-value median, in unhedged U.S. dollars with yen dispersion; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Building-block model: income and buybacks, mid-single-digit EPS growth, modest multiple compression.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.