Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 41.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.0
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- Last close
- $56.84
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield plus haircut forward EPS growth plus partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median, in U.S. dollars with currency and earnings-cycle dispersion; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -5.0%
Building-block model: dividend yield, normalized EPS growth after the semiconductor-cycle peak, and partial multiple normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +3.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $91.71 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $104.90 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $151.26 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $42.59 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.14 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.46 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $56.84 | +7.5% |