Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 81.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.0
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- Last close
- $29.12
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -12.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield plus modest EPS growth less partial multiple compression toward the modeled fair-value median, in unhedged U.S. dollars; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.5%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Building-block model: about 3.5% income, low-single-digit EPS growth and gradual multiple compression.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +0.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers about the same median return with much lower uncertainty.