Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 36.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $71.20
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +10.5%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +2.6%
- P10
- -0.5%
88% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to worst plus duration-weighted price change across justified-yield scenarios, less a small credit-spread widening allowance; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.9%
- P75
- +6.6%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +3.9%
- P10
- +2.3%
Starting-yield anchor with partial reinvestment at scenario yields; consistent with the historical link between starting aggregate yield and subsequent multi-year returns.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $71.20 | +5.4% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.05 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.05 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $103.85 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.50 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.24 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.34 | — |