China & Hong Kong Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
MCHI · China Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 46.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $49.00
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-23
57/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield plus buybacks plus haircut earnings growth, with a country-risk premium and wide policy-driven dispersion; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -8.0%
Building-block model: income, modest nominal earnings growth and an unchanged median multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $23.76 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.80 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.74 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.64 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.26 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $21.73 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $32.31 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $23.14 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.2Fair | 101.0 | $49.00 | +6.5% |