Energy
Today’s price sits at the 81.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 82.9
- Upside to median
- -17.1%
- Last close
- $169.53
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- -3.0%
- P25
- -20.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
45% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Front-month futures exposure: spot path across supply scenarios plus positive roll yield from steep backwardation plus collateral income; probabilities are read from the modeled return quantiles and are not calibrated.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +5.0%
- Median
- -3.0%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
Scenario-weighted normalization of crude prices toward mid-cycle levels, partly offset by roll yield while the curve stays backwardated.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- -7.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.