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CXProWealth

Valuation Lens — October 23, 2026

Energy and U.S. equities price well above modeled fair value, while China, Europe and core bonds screen modestly cheap against a 4.44% one-year Treasury hurdle.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

Last market session Data cutoff
The hurdle to beat
4.44%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.44% sets the annual hurdle, while a 5.00% 10-year yield and 2.66% 10-year real yield near the top of their 10-year ranges raise discount rates for long-duration assets.

10y Treasury
5.0%
10y real
2.7%
Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market
+0.7Somewhat cheap
507090110130150FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 50%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market
+0.5Somewhat cheap
507090110130150FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 40.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 62%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market
+0.5Somewhat cheap
507090110130150FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 40.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 80%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate
+0.2Fair
507090110130150FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 46.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 53%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin
-0.1Fair
205080110140170200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 51.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 20–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
-0.3Fair
507090110130150FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 54.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 67%

Metals

GLD · Gold
-0.3Fair
406080100120140160FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 55.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market
-0.9Somewhat expensive
507090110130150FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 69%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market
-1.6Expensive
507090110130150FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 76.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 68%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index
-1.8Expensive
507090110130150FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 79.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil
-2.0Expensive
507090110130150FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 31%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

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Methodology
cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version
3.4.0
Run ID
valuation-lens-2026-10-23-261023001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.