Energy
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
USO · US Crude Oil
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 82.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 87.2
- Upside to median
- -12.8%
- Last close
- $169.53
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-23
60/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- -8.0%
- P25
- -24.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
38% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Expected crude path toward official 2027 forecasts net of futures roll effects, with wide quantiles for supply-disruption risk; probabilities interpolated from the modeled quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +6.0%
- P75
- 0.0%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Normalization toward industry five-year price expectations with futures roll costs; low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- -12.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a materially higher central return with far less uncertainty.