Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 40.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.6
- Upside to median
- +2.6%
- Last close
- $86.25
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -12.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 2.9%) plus expected earnings growth plus partial closure of the fair-value gap, in U.S. dollars with currency risk in the quantile spread; probabilities interpolated from the modeled quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.5%
Income plus earnings growth with gradual fair-value convergence; cross-checked against long-horizon institutional assumptions for developed ex-U.S. equities.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +3.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.