Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 51.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 98.9
- Upside to median
- -1.1%
- Last close
- $45.96
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +75.0%
- P75
- +35.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash flows; median reflects modest network and demand growth with no valuation convergence; very wide quantiles reflect crypto volatility; probabilities interpolated from the modeled quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +45.0%
- P75
- +25.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
Scenario range of MVRV outcomes over three years; low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +0.6%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled one-year expected-return median for an exchange-traded bitcoin proxy minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, and far less certain than the Treasury yield.