China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 38.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- Last close
- $49.00
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 2.4%) plus expected earnings growth plus partial closure of the fair-value gap, with quantiles scaled to the asset class's high realized volatility; probabilities interpolated from the modeled quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Income plus earnings growth with gradual fair-value convergence over three years; wider dispersion for policy and geopolitical risk.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +3.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $23.76 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.80 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.74 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.64 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.26 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $21.73 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $32.31 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $23.14 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $49.00 | +8.0% |