Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 46.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $92.69
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -13.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 3.7%) plus cash-flow growth with no assumed valuation change; quantiles reflect REIT rate sensitivity; probabilities interpolated from the modeled quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Income plus FFO growth with modest cap-rate drift; bracketed by institutional assumptions of 4.4% (Vanguard midpoint) and 8.1% (J.P. Morgan core real estate).
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $26.14 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.52 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $91.55 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $27.47 | — |
| VNQ US Real Estate | +0.2Fair | 101.0 | $92.69 | +7.0% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $42.57 | — |