Metals
Today’s price sits at the 55.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 97.8
- Upside to median
- -2.2%
- Last close
- $366.61
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; median reflects official-sector demand offset by high real yields and soft investment flows; quantiles reflect gold volatility; probabilities interpolated from the modeled quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -8.0%
Demand-regime scenarios over three years with partial real-price reversion; low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- -1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers a higher central return with far less uncertainty.