Developed Pacific Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWA · Australia Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 76.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $29.12
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-23
61/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -12.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 3.6%) plus modest earnings growth less partial closure of the fair-value gap, in U.S. dollars; probabilities interpolated from the modeled quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -2.5%
Income plus low earnings growth with gradual multiple compression toward fair value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a thin modeled spread for equity-level risk, not a guaranteed excess return.