US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 79.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.3
- Upside to median
- -9.7%
- Last close
- $759.97
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -14.5%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 1.1%) plus haircut forward EPS growth (about 9%) less partial (about one-quarter) closure of the fair-value gap; quantiles from large-cap volatility; probabilities interpolated from the modeled quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Earnings growth plus shareholder yield with gradual multiple compression; consistent with institutional long-horizon assumptions of 4.8%-7.5%.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a thin modeled spread for equity-level risk, not a guaranteed excess return.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $521.37 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $275.75 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $704.40 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $216.54 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $527.20 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.8Expensive | 90.3 | $759.97 | +6.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.90 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $164.62 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $179.28 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $113.10 | — |