Emerging Markets Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 54.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.5
- Upside to median
- -1.5%
- Last close
- $56.84
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-23
61/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 2.0%) plus haircut forward earnings growth with a small valuation drag, in U.S. dollars; quantiles reflect EM volatility; probabilities interpolated from the modeled quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -4.5%
Income plus normalized earnings growth; cross-checked against a 7.1% long-horizon institutional EM assumption.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.44%
- Modeled excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $91.71 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $104.90 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $151.26 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $42.59 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.14 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.46 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -0.3Fair | 98.5 | $56.84 | +7.0% |