Valuation Lens — October 18, 2026
With the 10-year Treasury at 5.09% and real yields near 20-year highs, US, Australian and gold prices sit above modeled fair value, while China, emerging markets and core bonds sit modestly below it.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.46% sets the annual hurdle, while a 5.09% 10-year yield and a 2.74% 10-year real yield, both near the top of their 10-year ranges, raise the discount rate on every long-duration asset.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.1%
- 10y real
- 2.7%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +0.8Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 106.093.9–119.7
- Upside to median
- +6.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-20.2% to 36.2%
- vs Treasury
- +3.5%
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.7Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.098.6–103.4
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.4%-1.7% to 12.5%
- vs Treasury
- +0.9%
- +0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 104.092.7–116.6
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-16.4% to 32.4%
- vs Treasury
- +3.5%
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 102.080.6–129.2
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-52.7% to 62.7%
- vs Treasury
- +0.5%
- -0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.091.3–107.4
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-12.2% to 26.2%
- vs Treasury
- +2.5%
- EnergyXLE-0.8Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 95.085.3–105.8
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +3.5%-24.7% to 31.7%
- vs Treasury
- -1.0%
- -1.0Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 95.087.6–103.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-13.7% to 24.7%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- Real EstateVNQ-1.2Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 94.086.7–101.9
- Upside to median
- -6.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-15.0% to 26.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- MetalsGLD-1.4Expensive
- Median fair value
- 88.076.9–100.7
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-20.1% to 26.1%
- vs Treasury
- -1.5%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.6Expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.083.4–99.3
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-11.9% to 23.9%
- vs Treasury
- +1.5%
- -1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.083.9–98.7
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-12.9% to 22.9%
- vs Treasury
- +0.5%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 37.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 38.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 40.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 47.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–260 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–190 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 62.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 66.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 69.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 73.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–190 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 76.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 78.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Sources20
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 5iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 6iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 7iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF (IEUR) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 8iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 9iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) fund pageBlackRock iShares
- 10
- 11Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026Siblis Research
- 12Hang Seng CAPE, P/E and forward P/ESiblis Research
- 13Emerging Markets Equity Valuations 2026Siblis Research
- 14STOXX 600 seen rising modestly by year-end, poll showsReuters (via Kitco News)
- 15Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global Oil Markets (October 2026)U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 16
- 17ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted SpreadFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
- 18Gold Focus: posts from August 2026 (central bank gold statistics)World Gold Council
- 19Comprendre le MVRV du bitcoinCryptoactu
- 20Gold price on Tuesday, October 13, 2026PriceGold.net
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- valuation_lens_2026-10-18_r01
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.