Emerging Markets Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 40.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- Last close
- $58.03
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-16
59/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.4%
- P75
- +20.8%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -4.8%
- P10
- -16.4%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Roughly 2.5% dividend yield plus single-digit earnings growth after a peak-cycle 2026, plus one-third convergence toward median fair value; dispersion of 19 percentage points reflects semiconductor-cycle and currency risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.3%
- P75
- +13.3%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -0.3%
- P10
- -6.3%
Dividend yield plus cycle-adjusted earnings growth with gradual convergence toward median fair value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $92.27 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $106.26 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $150.44 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.83 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $65.28 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.66 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $58.03 | +8.0% |