Developed Pacific Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWA · Australia Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 78.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.0
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- Last close
- $28.73
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-16
63/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.9%
- P75
- +14.4%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -4.4%
- P10
- -12.9%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
About 4% dividend yield plus low-to-mid single-digit earnings growth, less one-third convergence toward median fair value; dispersion of 14 percentage points includes currency and commodity risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.1%
- P75
- +9.6%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -0.6%
- P10
- -5.1%
Dividend yield plus earnings growth with gradual multiple normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +0.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The edge is negligible relative to equity risk.