Metals
Today’s price sits at the 73.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–190 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 88.0
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- Last close
- $382.01
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.1%
- P75
- +15.1%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -9.1%
- P10
- -20.1%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; continued official-sector demand offset by one-third convergence toward median fair value and a high real-yield opportunity cost; dispersion of 18 percentage points.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.8%
- P75
- +8.8%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -4.8%
- P10
- -10.8%
Inflation-like drift less gradual valuation normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a higher modeled return with far less risk.