Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 47.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–260 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–190 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $46.15
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +62.7%
- P75
- +35.4%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -25.4%
- P10
- -52.7%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; modest adoption-driven drift plus one-third convergence toward median fair value; dispersion of 45 percentage points reflects bitcoin's realized volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +22.9%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -10.9%
- P10
- -26.0%
Adoption-driven drift with very wide outcomes; low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +0.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The edge is negligible relative to the dispersion.