US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 76.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.0
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- Last close
- $763.25
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.9%
- P75
- +15.4%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -3.4%
- P10
- -11.9%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
About 1.2% dividend yield plus roughly 10% forward EPS growth, less one-third convergence toward median fair value and partial margin normalization; dispersion of 14 percentage points.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +9.2%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -0.2%
- P10
- -4.5%
Shareholder yield plus slowing EPS growth with gradual multiple compression toward the rate-adjusted fair multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The expected edge is small relative to equity risk.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $519.10 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $270.44 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $709.80 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $214.09 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $539.79 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.6Expensive | 91.0 | $763.25 | +6.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.52 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $167.76 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $176.71 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $112.46 | — |