Energy
Today’s price sits at the 62.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $68.24
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +31.7%
- P75
- +18.3%
- Median
- +3.5%
- P25
- -11.3%
- P10
- -24.7%
56% of modeled scenarios end positive.
About 3% dividend yield plus elevated near-term cash flow, offset by fading oil prices and one-third convergence toward median fair value; dispersion of 22 percentage points reflects oil-price and supply-shock risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.4%
- P75
- +12.1%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -4.1%
- P10
- -11.4%
Shareholder yield plus mid-cycle cash flow as disrupted supply returns.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- -1.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a higher modeled return with far less risk.