Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 38.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $70.82
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.1%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +1.7%
- P10
- -1.7%
84% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to maturity of 5.39% less fees, plus a small duration gain from one-third convergence to median fair value; dispersion reflects a 5.7-year duration against roughly 90 bps of annual yield volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +9.8%
- P75
- +7.7%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +2.9%
- P10
- +0.8%
Starting yield anchors the three-year return; price effects of yield changes are partly offset by reinvestment at new yields.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a similar return with far less price risk.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $70.82 | +5.4% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $76.86 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.42 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $103.40 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.36 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $105.54 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $80.05 | — |