Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 69.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.0
- Upside to median
- -6.0%
- Last close
- $91.76
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-16
65/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +16.3%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -5.3%
- P10
- -15.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution income plus 4-5% cash-flow growth, less one-third convergence toward median fair value; dispersion of 16 percentage points reflects rate sensitivity.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.5%
- P75
- +11.1%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -1.1%
- P10
- -6.5%
Distribution yield plus cash-flow growth with gradual cap-rate normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $25.88 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.30 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $89.81 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $28.15 | — |
| VNQ US Real Estate | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | $91.76 | +5.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $42.16 | — |