Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 66.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $94.88
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-16
64/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.7%
- P75
- +15.6%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -4.6%
- P10
- -13.7%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
About 2.5% dividend yield plus buybacks and mid-to-high single-digit earnings growth, less one-third convergence toward median fair value; dispersion of 15 percentage points includes yen risk for a dollar-based investor.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.3%
- P75
- +10.4%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -0.4%
- P10
- -5.3%
Shareholder yield plus earnings growth with gradual multiple normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments