Valuation Lens — October 17, 2026

Core US bonds are the only asset class screening cheap as yields top 5%; US equities, Developed Pacific and oil sit furthest above modeled fair value.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 17, 2026Last market session Oct 16, 2026Data cutoff Oct 17, 2026, 2:15 AM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.46%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.46% is the annual hurdle, and with 10-year nominal and real yields at 5.09% and 2.74%, near 20-year highs, cash and bonds set a demanding bar for risk assets.

10y Treasury: 5.1%
10y real: 2.7%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.199.3–103.0
Upside to median
+1.1%
1y modeled
+5.8%-0.5% to 11.2%
vs Treasury
+1.3%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
0.0
Fair
Median fair value
100.391.0–109.9
Upside to median
+0.3%
1y modeled
+6.5%-19.0% to 31.0%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-0.3
Fair
Median fair value
98.388.3–108.6
Upside to median
-1.8%
1y modeled
+7.0%-16.0% to 27.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.175.1–112.2
Upside to median
-6.9%
1y modeled
+3.0%-45.0% to 65.0%
vs Treasury
-1.5%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.689.0–104.5
Upside to median
-3.4%
1y modeled
+6.2%-15.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+1.7%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.687.6–101.8
Upside to median
-5.4%
1y modeled
+6.0%-11.0% to 20.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.686.0–101.5
Upside to median
-6.4%
1y modeled
+5.9%-12.0% to 21.0%
vs Treasury
+1.4%
MetalsGLD
-1.4
Expensive
Median fair value
90.880.4–100.7
Upside to median
-9.3%
1y modeled
+1.0%-20.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
-3.5%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
90.683.6–97.8
Upside to median
-9.4%
1y modeled
+5.5%-14.0% to 21.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
EnergyUSO
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
86.577.4–96.4
Upside to median
-13.5%
1y modeled
-4.0%-40.0% to 35.0%
vs Treasury
-8.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.0
Expensive
Median fair value
87.378.7–96.3
Upside to median
-12.8%
1y modeled
+4.5%-15.0% to 21.0%
vs Treasury
+0.0%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-17, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	101.1 99.3–103.0	+1.1%	+5.8% -0.5% to 11.2%	+1.3%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	0.0 Fair	100.3 91.0–109.9	+0.3%	+6.5% -19.0% to 31.0%	+2.0%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-0.3 Fair	98.3 88.3–108.6	-1.8%	+7.0% -16.0% to 27.0%	+2.5%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	93.1 75.1–112.2	-6.9%	+3.0% -45.0% to 65.0%	-1.5%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.7 Somewhat expensive	96.6 89.0–104.5	-3.4%	+6.2% -15.0% to 24.0%	+1.7%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	94.6 87.6–101.8	-5.4%	+6.0% -11.0% to 20.0%	+1.5%
Europe Equities VGK	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	93.6 86.0–101.5	-6.4%	+5.9% -12.0% to 21.0%	+1.4%
Metals GLD	-1.4 Expensive	90.8 80.4–100.7	-9.3%	+1.0% -20.0% to 22.0%	-3.5%
US Equities SPY	-1.9 Expensive	90.6 83.6–97.8	-9.4%	+5.5% -14.0% to 21.0%	+1.0%
Energy USO	-1.9 Expensive	86.5 77.4–96.4	-13.5%	-4.0% -40.0% to 35.0%	-8.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.0 Expensive	87.3 78.7–96.3	-12.8%	+4.5% -15.0% to 21.0%	+0.0%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

0.0Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 49.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 50%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 54.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 67%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 59.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 40% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 10–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.7Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 61.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 53%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 69%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 80%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.4Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 73.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 42%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 39%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.0Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources16

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026
FactSet
2
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) fund page
BlackRock iShares
3
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) fund page
BlackRock iShares
4
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) fund page
BlackRock iShares
5
iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) fund page
BlackRock iShares
6
iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF (IEUR) fund page
BlackRock iShares
7
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) fund page
BlackRock iShares
8
iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) fund page
BlackRock iShares
9
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) fund page
BlackRock iShares
10
Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
11
Gold market shows resilience as price momentum cools in Q2
World Gold Council
12
Nareit REIT Industry Tracker
Nareit
13
Europe P/E Ratio & Valuations 2026
Siblis Research
14
Emerging Markets Equity Valuations 2026
Siblis Research
15
P/E Ratios by Country
Siblis Research
16
Comprendre le MVRV du bitcoin
Crypto Actu

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: valuation-lens-2026-10-17-261017001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.