Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 54.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.3
- Upside to median
- -1.8%
- Last close
- $58.03
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution yield (about 2.8%) plus haircut forward earnings growth near 10%, less about 4% multiple compression as near-peak semiconductor earnings normalize; dispersion scaled to roughly 18% annualized volatility. Scenario-implied probabilities interpolate between modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -5.0%
Income plus mid-cycle earnings growth with partial reversal of the current earnings surge; dispersion narrowed for a three-year horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The edge depends heavily on how much of the forecast earnings surge is delivered.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $92.27 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $106.26 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $150.44 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.83 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $65.28 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $47.66 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -0.3Fair | 98.3 | $58.03 | +7.0% |