Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.6
- Upside to median
- -5.4%
- Last close
- $94.88
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -11.0%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Ordinary dividend yield (about 2%) plus expected earnings growth near 6%, less about 2% of valuation convergence; unhedged USD dispersion scaled to roughly 13-15% annualized volatility. Scenario-implied probabilities interpolate between modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Income plus earnings growth with partial convergence toward the fair-value median over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.