Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 33.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.1
- Upside to median
- +1.1%
- Last close
- $70.82
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.2%
- P75
- +8.6%
- Median
- +5.8%
- P25
- +2.8%
- P10
- -0.5%
88% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to maturity (5.39%) less fund costs as carry, plus price change from the justified-yield scenarios at 5.70-year duration and a one-year yield volatility of about 0.9 pp; scenario-implied probabilities interpolate between modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.8%
- P75
- +6.7%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +4.4%
- P10
- +3.2%
Starting yield as the dominant anchor, with reinvestment at scenario yields and partial pull-to-par of price effects over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +1.3%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Core bonds take duration risk for a modest edge over the 1-year Treasury.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 101.1 | $70.82 | +5.8% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $76.86 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.42 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $103.40 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.36 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $105.54 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $80.05 | — |