Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 59.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 40% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 93.1
- Upside to median
- -6.9%
- Last close
- $46.15
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +65.0%
- P75
- +30.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -20.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; a small positive drift from adoption demand partly offset by slight convergence toward the fair-value median, with very wide, right-skewed dispersion typical of the asset. Scenario-implied probabilities interpolate between modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
unavailable- P90
- —
- P75
- —
- Median
- —
- P25
- —
- P10
- —
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a higher central outcome with far lower uncertainty.