US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 81.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.6
- Upside to median
- -9.4%
- Last close
- $763.25
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 1.1%) plus realized forward-EPS growth near 9% (consensus haircut for typical revisions), less about 4.5% of forward-multiple compression toward the rate-adjusted fair multiple; dispersion scaled to roughly 15% annualized volatility. Scenario-implied probabilities interpolate between modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Dividends plus about 7% annual EPS growth, less about 3.5% a year of multiple compression toward about 17x forward earnings.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a nearly competitive central outcome with far lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $519.10 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $270.44 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $709.80 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $214.09 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $539.79 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.9Expensive | 90.6 | $763.25 | +5.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.52 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $167.76 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $176.71 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $112.46 | — |