Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 61.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.6
- Upside to median
- -3.4%
- Last close
- $91.76
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +6.2%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 3.7%) plus AFFO growth near 4%, less about 1.5% of valuation convergence; dispersion scaled to roughly 18% annualized volatility. Scenario-implied probabilities interpolate between modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Income plus cash-flow growth with partial convergence toward the fair-value median over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +1.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $25.88 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.30 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $89.81 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $28.15 | — |
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 96.6 | $91.76 | +6.2% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $42.16 | — |