Metals
Today’s price sits at the 73.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.8
- Upside to median
- -9.3%
- Last close
- $382.01
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; official-sector demand roughly offsets the drag from high real yields and slight convergence toward the fair-value median; dispersion scaled to roughly 18% annualized volatility. Scenario-implied probabilities interpolate between modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -9.0%
Inflation-like drift with partial convergence toward the fair-value median over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- -3.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a higher central outcome with far lower uncertainty.