Energy
Today’s price sits at the 81.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 86.5
- Upside to median
- -13.5%
- Last close
- $161.76
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +35.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -40.0%
45% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Expected spot decline toward the official 2027 path, partly offset by positive roll yield from backwardation and collateral income near 4%; dispersion scaled to roughly 40% annualized volatility. Scenario-implied probabilities interpolate between modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +6.0%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Spot normalization toward marginal cost over three years, with roll yield fading as the curve flattens and collateral income retained.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- -8.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year Treasury offers a materially higher central outcome with far lower uncertainty.