China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 49.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.3
- Upside to median
- +0.3%
- Last close
- $51.20
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +31.0%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -19.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution yield (about 2.1%) plus expected earnings growth near 6%, with no valuation convergence at a fair median; dispersion scaled to roughly 21% annualized volatility. Scenario-implied probabilities interpolate between modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Income plus mid-single-digit earnings growth with stable multiples; dispersion narrowed for a three-year horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +2.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The edge is small relative to a return range that spans about 50 percentage points.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.82 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.03 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $31.12 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.20 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $41.09 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.09 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $33.84 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.41 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | 0.0Fair | 100.3 | $51.20 | +6.5% |