Valuation Lens — October 15, 2026
A 4.49% one-year Treasury and a 2.78% ten-year real yield reprice everything: broad US bonds and Chinese equities screen cheap, while US large-cap, Japanese, emerging-market and Pacific equities trade above modeled economic value.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
A 4.49% one-year Treasury par yield alongside a 2.78% ten-year real yield near the top of its ten-year range sets an unusually high opportunity cost for every risk asset in this report.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.1%
- 10y real
- 2.8%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- Fixed IncomeBND+1.3Cheap
- Median fair value
- 103.599.5–107.2
- Upside to median
- +3.5%
- 1y modeled
- +5.8%-1.9% to 12.9%
- vs Treasury
- +1.3%
- +1.0Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 110.093.8–122.8
- Upside to median
- +10.0%
- 1y modeled
- +10.0%-23.5% to 40.5%
- vs Treasury
- +5.5%
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.4Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 105.082.7–132.7
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-53.5% to 85.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.5%
- Real EstateVNQ-0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.091.6–106.8
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-15.0% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.5%
- MetalsGLD-1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.079.9–103.5
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-25.0% to 30.0%
- vs Treasury
- -1.5%
- EnergyUSO-1.2Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 89.578.0–102.7
- Upside to median
- -10.5%
- 1y modeled
- +2.0%-31.3% to 34.0%
- vs Treasury
- -2.5%
- -1.3Expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.085.2–101.4
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-15.5% to 27.5%
- vs Treasury
- +2.5%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.6Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.084.5–99.4
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-15.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.5%
- -1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 90.080.9–98.4
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-17.5% to 26.5%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- -1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 88.077.5–98.1
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.5%-18.5% to 33.5%
- vs Treasury
- +4.0%
- -2.1Expensive
- Median fair value
- 87.078.2–95.4
- Upside to median
- -13.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.5%-16.5% to 23.5%
- vs Treasury
- +0.0%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 28.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 33.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 44.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 53.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 68.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 70.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 71.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 76.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 78.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 78.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 85.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 15% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Sources21
- 1S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026FactSet Research Systems
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 10
- 11
- 12
- 13
- 14
- 15Short-Term Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 16
- 17Gold price quotationTrading Economics
- 18Brent crude oil price quotationTrading Economics
- 19Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026World Gold Council
- 20
- 21Bitcoin MVRV Ratio chartNewhedge
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- vl_2026-10-15_340_001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.