Energy
Today’s price sits at the 70.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.5
- Upside to median
- -10.5%
- Last close
- $157.31
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.0%
- P75
- +18.9%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -15.5%
- P10
- -31.3%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Producer sleeves contribute roughly 4.5% of combined dividends and buybacks plus free-cash-flow growth; the futures-based sleeves contribute the normalisation of spot toward the official forward forecast, with the current backwardation treated as positive carry and kept separate from fair value. Natural gas carries an explicit structural roll drag. Dispersion is set from the complex's own forward return variability.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -13.0%
Three-year annualised return with crude normalising toward a mid-cycle price between the official 2027 forecast and the marginal cost of new supply, producer shareholder distributions reinvested, and no assumption that the current supply disruption persists or recurs.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Modeled excess
- -2.5%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median total return of 2.0% falls 2.49 percentage points short of the 4.49% one-year Treasury par yield, the widest negative modeled edge in this report. The one-year Treasury offers a competitive expected return with far lower uncertainty than crude exposure priced 20% above the official 2027 forecast.