Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 78.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 88.0
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- Last close
- $58.79
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.5%
- P75
- +21.5%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -18.5%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Forward income of about 2.0%, earnings growth of about 10% led by technology hardware, and a multiple change of about -3 points reflecting the modeled fair-value gap; dispersion widened for unhedged local-currency translation and for the cyclicality of the semiconductor earnings base.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -4.5%
Three-year annualised total return with partial normalisation of the semiconductor earnings cycle, continued index composition drift toward higher-return technology, and a larger share of the fair-value gap assumed to close.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Modeled excess
- +4.0%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median total return of 8.5% exceeds the 4.49% one-year Treasury par yield by 4.01 percentage points. Note that the valuation score is negative and the expected-return edge positive: the edge comes from earnings growth, not from the starting valuation.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWZ Brazil Index | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $41.58 | +12.0% |
| EZA South Africa Index | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $65.01 | +10.0% |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -1.7Expensive | 88.0 | $58.79 | +8.5% |
| EWY South Korea Index | -1.9Expensive | 86.0 | $156.22 | +8.0% |
| INDA India Index | -2.0Expensive | 85.0 | $47.95 | +8.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | -2.1Expensive | 84.0 | $94.06 | +7.5% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | -2.5Exceptionally expensive | 80.0 | $109.14 | +6.5% |