Metals
Today’s price sits at the 68.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $382.71
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Bullion carries no income and a small storage cost, so its contribution is valuation change only; mining equities contribute roughly 1.5% of dividends plus free-cash-flow accretion at realised prices; industrial metals contribute demand-led price drift against a marginal cost of supply. Dispersion is set from each component's own forward return variability.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -8.0%
Three-year annualised return with partial normalisation of the real bullion price toward its post-2010 range, continued official-sector accumulation at a slowing pace, and reinvestment of mining free cash flow.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.49%
- Modeled excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled one-year median total return of 3.0% falls 1.49 percentage points short of the 4.49% one-year Treasury par yield. On this model the one-year Treasury offers a competitive expected return with materially lower uncertainty than the metals complex.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | $382.71 | +3.0% |
| PPLT Platinum | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $14.76 | +6.0% |
| GDX Gold Miners | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $87.02 | +6.5% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $58.40 | +5.5% |
| DBB Base Metals | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $24.60 | +3.5% |
| SLV Silver | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $51.92 | +4.0% |
| CPER Copper | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $39.45 | +3.5% |